{ "purpose": "Replot public RSV antibody data; audit denominators and reported model summaries.\n\nThis does not refit the original Bayesian infection/antibody model, estimate causal\neffects of natural antibody titres, or derive a clinical protection threshold.\nRun with the source workbooks retained in evidence/2026-09-09-rsv-immune-protection/.\n", "inputs": { "evidence/2026-09-09-rsv-immune-protection/dokal2025-attachments/jamanetwopen-e2537808-s002.xlsx": "ef7e4705d216b78851e14c5b60f4e49f001346b84274721ae88735c7750ad620", "evidence/2026-09-09-rsv-immune-protection/hodgson2026-data/fig1_plot_data.xlsx": "776baf6ee583a504733f7af0346d25340ee2f4c02c885765f57617513895155c", "evidence/2026-09-09-rsv-immune-protection/hodgson2026-data/fig5_plot_data.xlsx": "fcd6d76059a934f8ba3ab9882218c4415beb7baa11169dc33ab26a11cf80f346", "evidence/2026-09-09-rsv-immune-protection/hodgson2026-data/fig3_plot_data.xlsx": "be73a2429078903c083e5bdc47c0ae76c497d5d1ba949bf922748bc913822737" }, "children": { "age_summaries": [ { "age": "0 months", "timing": "Before", "n": 24, "q25": 12.591605224609374, "median": 25.426995117187502, "q75": 48.7541572265625 }, { "age": "6 months", "timing": "Before", "n": 38, "q25": 0.6023500061035156, "median": 1.7381600341796877, "q75": 4.954679931640625 }, { "age": "1 year", "timing": "Before", "n": 44, "q25": 0.03300249910354614, "median": 4.355654907226563, "q75": 33.885354980468755 }, { "age": "2 years", "timing": "Before", "n": 41, "q25": 2.51797998046875, "median": 24.222130859375, "q75": 61.1017109375 }, { "age": "3 years", "timing": "Before", "n": 38, "q25": 81.08775390625, "median": 181.17446875000002, "q75": 477.064265625 }, { "age": "4 years", "timing": "Before", "n": 38, "q25": 74.1454921875, "median": 129.40887890625, "q75": 293.13367968750003 }, { "age": "0 months", "timing": "After", "n": 6, "q25": 41.567499999999995, "median": 70.377515625, "q75": 172.085005859375 }, { "age": "6 months", "timing": "After", "n": 11, "q25": 1.1694100341796876, "median": 1.8328900146484375, "q75": 5.41839501953125 }, { "age": "1 year", "timing": "After", "n": 24, "q25": 0.007817500352859497, "median": 0.148560001373291, "q75": 23.56245947265625 }, { "age": "2 years", "timing": "After", "n": 20, "q25": 2.3532524719238284, "median": 25.7597802734375, "q75": 74.55311718749999 }, { "age": "3 years", "timing": "After", "n": 13, "q25": 17.739099609375, "median": 36.98169921875, "q75": 51.6196484375 }, { "age": "4 years", "timing": "After", "n": 17, "q25": 43.23555859375, "median": 72.486953125, "q75": 126.82684375 } ], "combined_3_4_years": { "before_n": 76, "after_n": 30, "before_quantiles": [ 78.10313671875, 141.782234375, 423.103265625 ], "after_quantiles": [ 31.0657470703125, 49.6040390625, 120.65556445312501 ], "median_ratio_after_before": 0.349860751462713, "unadjusted_mann_whitney_p": 0.00017285830245154224 }, "limit": "作者公开的筛选后数据；未重新筛原始PCR或拟合含诊断/站点/性别的调整模型。" }, "compartments": { "n": 342, "groups": [ { "age": "0-5", "n": 53, "pearson_log10": 0.5744925089970335, "spearman": 0.5042542140477697 }, { "age": "6-15", "n": 117, "pearson_log10": -0.08201703876535839, "spearman": 0.006743694645506451 }, { "age": "16+", "n": 172, "pearson_log10": -0.03605238951491764, "spearman": -0.060025045811194194 } ], "overall_pearson_log10": 0.25973042072947805, "overall_spearman": 0.0839232202203154, "limit": "源表的首次访视读数；不是作者在估计感染时点计算的相关矩阵。公开0-5岁字段有53人，与正文Fig4的52人和局限段<5岁41人口径不同；未推定差异原因。" }, "model_sensitivity": { "summaries": [ { "dataset": "pcr_only", "biomarker": "mucosal_IgA_A2_preF", "auc": 0.6628103277060574, "lower": 0.5917850508977405, "upper": 0.7338356045143748, "loo_elpd": -147.3343701363291 }, { "dataset": "pcr_sero_90", "biomarker": "mucosal_IgA_A2_preF", "auc": 0.6989994441356313, "lower": 0.6313919475743108, "upper": 0.7666069406969509, "loo_elpd": -154.0280233135084 }, { "dataset": "pcr_sero_80", "biomarker": "mucosal_IgA_A2_preF", "auc": 0.7212539021852233, "lower": 0.6575597869040382, "upper": 0.7849480174664094, "loo_elpd": -157.79264465783 }, { "dataset": "pcr_sero_70", "biomarker": "mucosal_IgA_A2_preF", "auc": 0.7168304177649969, "lower": 0.6574627647472513, "upper": 0.7761980707827432, "loo_elpd": -167.7450526797952 }, { "dataset": "pcr_only", "biomarker": "serum_IgG_A2_preF", "auc": 0.5996027805362464, "lower": 0.5236382155241478, "upper": 0.6755673455483447, "loo_elpd": -152.7036277638446 }, { "dataset": "pcr_sero_90", "biomarker": "serum_IgG_A2_preF", "auc": 0.6319251435982953, "lower": 0.5593408991316925, "upper": 0.7045093880648982, "loo_elpd": -160.5145110958074 }, { "dataset": "pcr_sero_80", "biomarker": "serum_IgG_A2_preF", "auc": 0.657171349288934, "lower": 0.5891031849438376, "upper": 0.7252395136340325, "loo_elpd": -163.6342630334153 }, { "dataset": "pcr_sero_70", "biomarker": "serum_IgG_A2_preF", "auc": 0.6502915568336121, "lower": 0.5862711532594345, "upper": 0.7143119604077914, "loo_elpd": -175.1780615636989 } ], "infection_counts": [ { "dataset": "pcr_only", "n_infected": 76, "n_total": 342, "attack_rate": 0.2222222222222222, "dataset_label": "100%", "dataset_order": "100%" }, { "dataset": "pcr_sero_90", "n_infected": 84, "n_total": 342, "attack_rate": 0.2456140350877193, "dataset_label": "90%", "dataset_order": "90%" }, { "dataset": "pcr_sero_80", "n_infected": 94, "n_total": 342, "attack_rate": 0.2748538011695906, "dataset_label": "80%", "dataset_order": "80%" }, { "dataset": "pcr_sero_70", "n_infected": 108, "n_total": 342, "attack_rate": 0.3157894736842105, "dataset_label": "70%", "dataset_order": "70%" } ], "limit": "原作者模型派生结果的重绘，不是本库重新估计效应或验证全部后验。" }, "dual_vs_mucosal_auc_gain": 0.0016475893166836286, "odds_ratio_example": { "initial_probability": 0.5, "odds_ratio": 1.9, "new_probability": 0.6551724137931034, "limit": "纯粹的优势比换算示例，起始概率自选，不是个人风险预测或因果效应。" }, "melody_unadjusted": { "treated": [ 12, 994 ], "placebo": [ 25, 496 ], "risk_difference": -0.03833079119880574, "risk_ratio": 0.23951710261569417, "relative_reduction": 0.7604828973843059, "limit": "粗风险计算，不替代原文年龄调整及缺失值插补后的74.5%疗效；终点为150日内需就医RSV下呼吸道感染。" } }