{
  "linear_stages": [
    {
      "a": 1,
      "b": 3,
      "variance": 0.02,
      "lag1_dt_point1": 0.9868470167130805,
      "covariance": [
        [
          0.02,
          0.02
        ],
        [
          0.02,
          0.08
        ]
      ],
      "pulse_at_one": 0.36787944117144233
    },
    {
      "a": 0.2,
      "b": 3,
      "variance": 0.12499999999999999,
      "lag1_dt_point1": 0.9972972770656865,
      "covariance": [
        [
          0.12499999999999999,
          0.024999999999999998
        ],
        [
          0.024999999999999998,
          0.08
        ]
      ],
      "pulse_at_one": 0.8187307530779818
    },
    {
      "a": 3,
      "b": 1,
      "variance": 0.02,
      "lag1_dt_point1": 0.9868470167130805,
      "covariance": [
        [
          0.02,
          0.06
        ],
        [
          0.06,
          0.24
        ]
      ],
      "pulse_at_one": 0.049787068367863944
    },
    {
      "a": 3,
      "b": 0.2,
      "variance": 0.12499999999999999,
      "lag1_dt_point1": 0.9972972770656865,
      "covariance": [
        [
          0.12499999999999999,
          0.37499999999999994
        ],
        [
          0.37499999999999994,
          1.2
        ]
      ],
      "pulse_at_one": 0.049787068367863944
    }
  ],
  "classification": {
    "metrics": [
      "log variance ratio",
      "lag1 correlation difference",
      "raw three-point asymmetry difference",
      "standardized three-point asymmetry difference"
    ],
    "calibration_n": 2000,
    "test_n_per_case": 1000,
    "window_samples": 1000,
    "sample_dt": 0.1,
    "windows_per_record": 2,
    "calibration_and_test_seeds_disjoint": true,
    "threshold": [
      0.43804780664347753,
      0.005321356089462159,
      0.0002978129151523267,
      0.10415399626067896
    ],
    "robust_threshold": [
      2.3513260938793414,
      0.014977974569756802,
      0.006044344026100443,
      0.10415399626067896
    ],
    "robust_calibration": "maximum 95th percentile of unchanged, noise-color, noise-amplitude null families, 2000 records each; within calibration records dependence is allowed",
    "cases": {
      "稳定对照": {
        "alarm_fraction": [
          0.044,
          0.053,
          0.04,
          0.047
        ],
        "alarm_count": [
          44,
          53,
          40,
          47
        ],
        "robust_alarm_fraction": [
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.0,
          0.047
        ]
      },
      "恢复变慢": {
        "alarm_fraction": [
          1.0,
          0.986,
          0.554,
          0.002
        ],
        "alarm_count": [
          1000,
          986,
          554,
          2
        ],
        "robust_alarm_fraction": [
          0.032,
          0.046,
          0.0,
          0.002
        ]
      },
      "只改变噪声记忆": {
        "alarm_fraction": [
          1.0,
          0.986,
          0.554,
          0.002
        ],
        "alarm_count": [
          1000,
          986,
          554,
          2
        ],
        "robust_alarm_fraction": [
          0.032,
          0.046,
          0.0,
          0.002
        ]
      },
      "只增加噪声幅度": {
        "alarm_fraction": [
          1.0,
          0.053,
          0.86,
          0.047
        ],
        "alarm_count": [
          1000,
          53,
          860,
          47
        ],
        "robust_alarm_fraction": [
          0.025,
          0.0,
          0.043,
          0.047
        ]
      }
    },
    "target": "predeclared family with deterministic restoring coefficient reaching zero in continuation H50, versus a fixed positive restoring coefficient",
    "continuation": "slow family a(t)=.2-.004*t for t in [0,50]; swapped family a=3,b starts .2; only pre-continuation stationary records used",
    "scope": "pointwise one decision per record, not rolling repeated alarm or actual rare first-passage; duplicate observations across causal interpretations explicit"
  },
  "stommel": {
    "model": "Kooloth2026 Eq15 + SI Discussion5/FigS9; new implementation, not original code",
    "eta1": 3,
    "eta3": 0.3,
    "eta2": "1-.3*t",
    "sigma": 0.03,
    "dt": 0.00025,
    "replicates": 500,
    "T": 5,
    "sample_dt": 0.0025,
    "window": 0.25,
    "max_lag": 0.025,
    "estimator_difference": "own contained-triple/mean discrete estimator on downsampled records; no claim of original figure numeric reproduction",
    "fold_eta2": 1.2201153171955241,
    "stationary_eigenvalues": [
      {
        "eta2": 1,
        "psi": 0.7610652808263121,
        "largest_real_eigenvalue": -0.6991729598789796
      },
      {
        "eta2": 0.5,
        "psi": 1.0799922087369511,
        "largest_real_eigenvalue": -1.2473849265857098
      },
      {
        "eta2": 0,
        "psi": 1.3027756377320014,
        "largest_real_eigenvalue": -1.6027756377319908
      },
      {
        "eta2": -0.5,
        "psi": 1.4864342448548458,
        "largest_real_eigenvalue": -1.8800501129631022
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    ],
    "any_psi_nonpositive": 0,
    "deterministic_psi_start_end": [
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      1.4409827558687172
    ],
    "cross_mean_max": 0.005472384885073306,
    "cross_mean_final": 0.0032652939465035655,
    "cross_peak_time": 2.15
  },
  "escape": [
    {
      "D": 0.02,
      "n": 4000,
      "T": 200,
      "target": 0.8,
      "hits": 0,
      "fraction": 0.0,
      "Wilson95": [
        5.421010862427522e-20,
        0.0009594432897014865
      ],
      "coarse_hits": 0,
      "paired_disagree": 0,
      "local_restoring_rate": 2.0,
      "fine_dt": 0.01,
      "coarse_dt": 0.02
    },
    {
      "D": 0.08,
      "n": 4000,
      "T": 200,
      "target": 0.8,
      "hits": 3274,
      "fraction": 0.8185,
      "Wilson95": [
        0.8062517996280825,
        0.8301370349963777
      ],
      "coarse_hits": 3270,
      "paired_disagree": 18,
      "local_restoring_rate": 2.0,
      "fine_dt": 0.01,
      "coarse_dt": 0.02
    }
  ],
  "one_sided_zero_hit_upper95": 0.0007486526880178257,
  "Bayes_example": {
    "sensitivity": 0.8,
    "false_positive_rate": 0.05,
    "prior": 0.01,
    "positive_predictive_value": 0.1391304347826087
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}